2008 US Sea Scallop Assessment
The US scallop landings for 2007 were approximately 58 million pounds. The approximate breakdown by size was as follows:
- 25% = U/10's
- 58% = 10/20's
- 13% = 20/30's
- 3% = 30/40's
- <1% = 40/60's
Included in this amount was approximately 20% U/10's and 10/20's that came from the northern areas of Lightship and George's Bank. Prices in 2007 fluctuated dramatically, starting with very high prices in February before bottoming out in June.
For 2008 we expect a decline in the harvest of approximately 10 mm lbs for about a total of 48mm lbs. The primary fishing grounds will be Elephant Trunk, which will produce a 9-15 ct/lb scallop, or a large 10/20. Over 40% of the harvest is expected to come from the Elephant Trunk region. During the early spring months, the product is expected to be firm with low moisture. During the months of June through August, we expect the product to be softer, higher moisture, due to the warmer waters. In the fall the product is expected to be firm again but sold primarily into the fresh market during the holiday season.
In addition to the Elephant Trunk region, the boats will make one trip into the Lightship area where they are expected to hail U/10's. When the US had up to 4 trips in the northern areas, the prices would tend to collapse after the area opened in June, but with only one trip, the price of U/10's is expected to remain strong. We do not expect that extra trip in the Elephant Trunk to produce as many U/10's as what is being lost from George's Bank, therefore we expect that the total U/10 harvest will decrease significantly. We also expect a small decline in total 10/20's and a significant decline in 20/30's and 30/40's.
In normal economic situations when supply decreases, prices increase. But with a slowing US economy, prices could remain firm and not escalate like previous years. We also don't expect the price to fall as low in June or July. So fairly stable prices with a declining supply.